Three scenarios. How the war in Ukraine will develop further: Western forecasts

Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine is reaching a turning point that could determine its long-term outcome. Western officials and analysts are considering three main scenarios for how events can develop further.

First scenario

According to Western experts, the first possible scenario is that Russia will gradually seize new territories in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Second scenario

According to the West, the second scenario may be that neither the Ukrainian side nor the Russian side will advance and the war will drag on in the positional phase for months or even years. That will carry heavy losses for both countries and consequences for the global economy.

Third scenario

His experts consider the least likely. Namely, that the Russian Federation will adjust its goals and announce that it has allegedly achieved what it was going to, and will try to pave the way for the end of hostilities.

That being said, Western officials argue that if Russia can consolidate some of its gains in the east, then Russian President Vladimir Putin will eventually be able to use the territory as a platform for further advances into Ukraine.

Experts believe that Russia is in a better position in eastern Ukraine, based solely on the number of forces involved.

“However, ‘Russian progress’ is not predetermined,” said a senior Biden administration official.

He noted that as the front lines of the conflict have escalated into a war of attrition built around artillery fire, both sides have suffered massive casualties and are now facing potential strength shortages.

At the same time, it is reported that Russia has already suffered losses in the amount of up to a third of its ground forces.

“I think the moment will soon come when either one or the other side will be successful. Either the Russian Federation will reach Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, or the Ukrainians will stop them there. And if the Ukrainians can keep the defense there with such a balance of power, it matters,” – says a high-ranking interlocutor from NATO.

Recall that earlier the President of Ukraine Zelensky told what the turning point in the war against Russia depends on .

Recall that earlier NATO stated that a war of attrition is being waged in Ukraine, but it will end anyway at the negotiating table .

Read urgent and important messages about Russia’s war against Ukraine on the RBC-Ukraine Telegram channel.

WE NEED YOU AT THIS CRUCIAL TIME IN OUR COUNTRY, THOUSANDS ARE DISPLACED WITH A DAILY INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF CASUALTIES FROM THE RUSSIA WAR AGAINST UKRAINE.

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